NATURAL RESOURCES UTILIZATION AND INTERCORP PATTERNS OF THE NEWLY BUILT ORCHARD IN THE UNCULTIVATED SLOPING FIELD     

ZENG Fu_ping 《山地学报》1999,17(3):1

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Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application     

Binquan?LiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Zhongmin?Liang  Yingqing?He  Lin?Hu  Weimin?Zhao  Kumud?Acharya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1045-1059

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.  相似文献   

Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Amanda?LenziEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Pierre?Pinson  Line?H.?Clemmensen  Gilles?Guillot 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1615-1631

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.  相似文献   

Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes     

Daniela?Castro Camilo  Miguel?de CarvalhoEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1603-1613

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods.  相似文献   

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting     

Ke-Sheng?ChengEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Yi-Ting?Lien  Yii-Chen?Wu  Yuan-Fong?Su 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1123-1146

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach     

Daryl?LamEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Chris?Thompson  Jacky?Croke 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):2011-2031

Extreme flood events have detrimental effects on society, the economy and the environment. Widespread flooding across South East Queensland in 2011 and 2013 resulted in the loss of lives and significant cost to the economy. In this region, flood risk planning and the use of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood is severely limited by short gauging station records. On average, these records are 42 years in Eastern Australia and many have a poor representation of extreme flood events. The major aim of this study is to test the application of an alternative method to estimate flood frequency in the form of the Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information of extreme flood events. In order to better define and constrain a working definition of an extreme flood, an Australian Envelope Curve is also produced from available gauging station data. Results indicate that the PREC method shows significant changes to the larger recurrence intervals (≥100 years) in gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.  相似文献   

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica     

Mario?GómezEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  M.?Concepción Ausín  M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.  相似文献   

Second-order wave loading on a horizontal rectangular cylinder of substantial draught     

Wojciech Sulisz

Mickey Johansson 《Applied Ocean Research》1992,14(6):333-340

Approximate first- and second-order analytical solutions of wave diffraction of a semi-submerged horizontal cylinder of rectangular cross-section are presented. The solutions are based on the assumption that the pressure in the fluid domain underneath the cylinder is linearly dependent on the horizontal space coordinate. Basically, this approach is valid when the clearance between the bottom of the cylinder and the sea bottom is small in comparison with the wave length and is recommended for a cylinder of substantial draught where due to the small clearance other methods are difficult to apply. Boundary conditions are satisfied by a choice of a proper form of the potential functions and by making use of the properties of matching conditions. Theoretical results reveal that the magnitude of the vertical second-order time-dependent loads could be significant and even exceed the corresponding first-order quantities. This phenomenon, which occurs even at moderate steepnesses, as well as the assumption of a linear pressure distribution, are confirmed by experiments performed in a wave tank.  相似文献   

Zoning and exsolution in alkali feldspars from Laacher See volcano (Western Germany): constraints on temperature history prior to eruption     

Smruti?Sourav?RoutEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Gerhard?W?rner 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(11):95

Compositional zoning and exsolution patterns of alkali feldspars in carbonatite-bearing cognate syenites from the 6.3 km³ (D.R.E) phonolitic Laacher See Tephra (LST) deposit in western Germany (12.9 ka) are reported. These rocks represent the cooler outer portion and crystal-rich products of a cooling magma reservoir at upper crustal levels. Major and trace-element difference between cores and rims in sanidine crystals represent two generations of crystal growth separated by unmixing of a carbonate melt. Trace-element differences measured by LA–ICP–MS are in accordance with silicate–carbonate unmixing. Across the core–rim boundary, we extracted gray-scale profiles from multiple accumulations of back-scattered electron images. Gray scales directly represent K/Na ratios owing to low concentrations of Ba and Sr (<?30 ppm). Diffusion gradients are modeled to solve for temperature using known pre-eruptive U–Th zircon ages (0–20 ky) of each sample (Schmitt et al., J Petrol 51:1053–1085, 2010). Estimated temperatures range from 630 °C to 670 °C. For the exsolution boundaries, a diffusive homogenization model is constrained by the solvus temperature of ~ 712^_725 °C and gives short time scales of only 15–50 days. Based on our results, we present a model for the temperature–time history of these rocks. The model also constrains the thermal variation across the cooling crystal-rich carapace of the magma reservoir over 20 ka and suggests a thermal reactivation of cumulates, the cooling carapace, and probably the entire system only a few years prior to the explosive eruption of the remaining molten core of the phonolitic magma reservoir.  相似文献   

Correction to: Ferric/ferrous ratio in silicate melts: a new model for 1 atm data with special emphasis on the effects of melt composition     

Alexander?BorisovEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Harald?Behrens  Francois?Holtz 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(12):107

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